Revised estimates: what the latest NASS data means for California tomatoes.
Morning Star colleague Aaron Giampietro is back with another TOMATO BITES by Morning Star update. This edition covers the USDA NASS report, which revises California’s processing tomato estimate to 11.3 million paid short tons, down from 11.6 million. Key points include projected field yields, acreage changes, and the impact of the July heatwave on quality.

Video: Tomato Bites by Morning Star, September Release
“Hello everyone, this is Aaron Giampietro from the Morning Star Packing Company with your September sixth, two thousand twenty-four Tomato Bite update.
The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service has released the third estimate of California processing tomato acreage and expected tonnage. The initial estimate from January was eleven point six million paid short tons, but it has now been revised to eleven point three million paid short tons.
While tonnage numbers grab headlines, it’s also important to consider field yield, the relationship between tons and acres harvested. Estimates from January, May, and August all point to a field yield of fifty paid short tons per acre, suggesting that the lower overall tonnage is due to fewer planted acres—down from two hundred thirty-two thousand acres in July to two hundred twenty-six thousand acres in August, a roughly three percent decrease. Historically, a two point three percent difference between planted and harvested acres is common, so this change isn’t remarkable.
If the projected yield of fifty paid short tons per acre is realized, it would rank in the top three since two thousand fourteen, just behind the two thousand twenty-three crop yield.
Decreasing paid weight percentages are beginning to reflect some initial impacts of the July heatwave. Split sets pose dual challenges of high green and high mold as the differing maturity dates make harvest timing and logistics more complex. Despite this, tomato paste quality remains good from both a viscosity and color standpoint.
There is a higher prevalence of blossom end rot in plants that were in the early stages of development during the July heatwave. Extreme heat accelerated water loss from these plants, disrupting their ability to transport nutrients to the developing fruit. This rapid water loss prevented the fruit from getting enough calcium, leading to the characteristic sunken spots on the blossom end of the tomatoes. This defect primarily impacts peeled tomato products, but modern optical sorting installations on the processing lines before and after peeling help reduce its impact on the finished product.
Our teams of field colleagues are staying vigilant and will continue scouting for upcoming challenges as we progress into September. The efforts of these teams, combined with coordination across the supply chain and processing factories, provide lead time to navigate through the pack effectively. We expect to see some slowing in harvest progress over the next few weeks, with the season wrapping up in early October.
Turning to market trends, the movement of tomato paste to U.S. customers is stable, with imports declining as buyers shorten their supply chains fueled by the reliability of California’s inventory levels. U.S. exports of bulk tomato paste has surged, increasing about eighteen percent compared to the previous three-year average, according to USDA Global Agricultural Trade System data. This growth reflects renewed confidence in California’s high-quality, value-added tomato paste. With imports in the U.S. trending lower, momentum is clearly shifting to California, emphasizing the strong position of our inventory and industry as we move forward.
We will be back in October with a final crop update”.
Post time: Oct-12-2024
